Vegas Fantasy Football Odds

The Vegas lines are known to provide DFS players with a weekly edge, but they can also be useful in traditional redraft leagues, primarily to identify value at the D/ST position, and to assess the risk of negative game script over the course of a season for running backs. Winning Teams Score More Fantasy Points Before looking at Vegas win totals, it's important to understand the relationship. Analyzing Vegas’ odds is a helpful strategy all DFS players should look to take advantage of. It can help when weighing competing lineup options for any given week. A high over/under total can.

Does the idea of using Las Vegas odds in your fantasy football drafts fill you with dread? Do you cringe at the thought of perusing NFL football betting lines before selecting players for that week’s lineup at DraftKings and FanDuel?

You’re not alone. A lot of fantasy team owners shudder when they think about using the lines set by Vegas oddsmakers. Doing so seems like too much work and they do not know what they are looking for exactly, or even where to look.

• Bovada Sportsbook – Check Odds Here – I’ve linked directly to the odds page for current NFL games.

That opens up a nice opportunity for you. By reviewing the numbers predicted by oddsmakers, you’ll gain a healthy advantage over your competition. That could spell the difference between winning and losing your next contest. The best part? Using Vegas odds in your daily fantasy football drafts takes a lot less work than you might imagine. It’s essentially a matter of knowing what to look for.

Today, we’ll cover some of the numbers you’ll see when you look up lines on the current week’s NFL games. You’ll also learn which numbers to focus on, as well as which ones to ignore, when you draft players.

The Moneyline And Point Spread: What Do They Mean?

A moneyline reflects which team is expected to win. The favored team has a negative number following its name. The underdog has a positive number. For example, here’s the line (at the time of writing) for the Titans and Jaguars game for week 3 of the 2019 season:

• Tennessee Titans -140
• Jacksonville Jaguars +120

The Titans are expected to win. If you wanted to bet on them, you’d have to put up $140 to win $100. If you wanted to bet on the Jaguars, you’d put up $100 to win $120.

A point spread reflects not only which team is expected win, but also the number of points by which it is expected to do so. The spread for the Ravens/Chiefs game is currently listed as follows:

• Baltimore Ravens +6
• Kansas City Chiefs -6

If you’re betting on the Ravens to win, their ending score must exceed the Chiefs’ score by at least 4 points in order for you to get paid. If you’re betting on the Chiefs, the Chiefs’ ending score must be no more than 2 points less than the Ravens’ ending score.

At this point, you might be confused. After all, the moneyline and point spread are based on the collective performances of the opposing teams. How do you use that information when selecting individual players?

Be patient. We’ll get there in a moment. First, we need to talk about over/unders.

Over/Unders In One Week Fantasy Football

An over/under reflects how many total points oddsmakers believe will be scored by the two opposing teams. The over/under for the Ravens/Chiefs game is currently 52.5. That means Vegas oddsmakers are predicting that the teams’ combined scores will equal 52.5 points.

Here again, you may be thinking, “That’s great. But how do I use that number when deciding which quarterback, receivers, running backs, and tight ends to draft?”

Patience. We’re almost there.

NFL Player Prop Bets: What Are They?

A prop bet (or proposition bet) is a type of wager placed on whether a particular event will occur during a game. For example, will Andy Dalton throw 2 touchdowns for the Bengals? Will LeSean McCoy rush 87 1/2 yards for the Chiefs?

Like money lines, points spreads and over/unders, player prop bets can influence your draft selections. But you have to know how to use them in order to make informed and inspired decisions.

Which Odds Should You Use For An NFL Fantasy Line-Up?

The answer depends on how much time you’re willing to invest into a draft. Some fantasy players are content to just look up the over/unders for that week’s games. A high O/U implies that the opposing teams are going to score a lot of points. That being the case, it makes sense to draft one or more offensive players from the two teams.

The problem with that approach is that it only gives you a limited view. It’s like trying to drive your car while looking through a toilet paper roll. You can see, but you’ll miss the bigger picture.

First, you can confidently ignore the moneyline. It won’t tell you anything more than you can learn from the point spread – at least not in terms of your draft decisions.

Second, it’s definitely a good idea to incorporate the point spread into your draft. I’ll explain how in the next section.

How To Use Vegas Odds In Daily Fantasy Football Drafts

Let’s take a closer look at the over/under for the Ravens/Chiefs game. As noted earlier, oddsmakers have set it at 52.5.

By itself, that number doesn’t reveal much about the upcoming game or the individual players that are expected to get time on the field. The over/under indicates a lot of points are going to be scored, but leaves a lot of unanswered questions. For example…

• – how many points will be scored by each team?
• – which quarterback will log the most points?
• – will the points come from the receivers or from an aggressive ground game?

Also, suppose the over/under was set at only 40. Besides suggesting that fewer total points would be scored during the game, what would the lower number imply about individual player performances? You can see how relying solely on the over/under can lead to problems.

Let’s take a look at how to eliminate – or at least minimize – those problems.

Recall that the O/U for Raves/Chiefs game is 52.5. From earlier, we also know the point spread is +/-6, with the Ravens favored by 6 points.

The first step is to figure out how many of the projected points for the night (52.5) are likely to be scored by each team. The math is simple. For each team, divide the over/under in half and subtract half the spread. Here’s the calculation for the Ravens:

(52.5 divided by 2) – (+6 divided by 2) or…
(26.25 – 3) or…
23.25 points

Here’s the calculation for the Chiefs:

(52.5 divided by 2) – (-6 divided by 2) or…
(26.25 – (-3) or…
29.25 points

Based on Vegas oddsmakers’ predictions, we can forecast that the Ravens will score 23.25 points and the Chiefs will score 29.25 points.

The second step is to determine which positions are likely to produce the night’s points. Close games with a high O/U often see the QBs making TD passes. That’s probably going to be the case with the Ravens and Chiefs. Both teams’ quarterbacks are likely to rely heavily on their respective receivers. If you were going to draft players from one or both teams, that’s where you’d want to focus your attention.

But suppose the point spread is larger than +/-6. Let’s say Vegas has set it at +/-9. Here, you might see more action from the running backs, especially if either team is trying to run minutes off the clock. That’s something to consider when creating your lineup.

A Warning To Relying Too Heavily On Las Vegas Odds In Fantasy Football

You may be tempted to cut corners while looking up Vegas odds. We already covered an example of doing so: using only the over/under to anticipate which players are likely to rock in that week’s games.

Resist that temptation. Otherwise, you’ll only be working with one piece of the puzzle. Without knowing the point spread, it’s too easy to make poorly-informed draft decisions.

Visit Bovada to retrieve the latest Vegas lines. Look for the over/under and point spread for each of the current week’s games. Write the numbers down for easy reference. Then, log into your accounts at DraftKings and FanDuel, and use the numbers you collected from Bovada to create your lineup.

It goes without saying that using Vegas odds is not a guarantee that you’ll win your daily fantasy football contests. The odds are not magic. But they can reveal opportunities you can exploit to build a highly-productive – and profitable! – fantasy squad.

Resources For Proper Odds

• Bovada Sportsbook – This is my #1 recommended sports betting site for current odds and player props. They are legit, honest and trustworthy and you do not have to have an account to see todays odds. I’ve linked directly to the odds page for current NFL games.
• Fantasy Football 101 – Guide for one week leagues found at FanDuel and DraftKings.
• FanDuel v. Draftkings Fantasy Football – The two largest fantasy sites are compared including a fantasy nfl scoring rules chart.
• And just for fun, go check out Monkey Knife Fight – Newer to the DFS games, but we’ve been using them and having a blast!

The Vegas Golden Knights (16-4-1) visit the Minnesota Wild (13-8-1) Monday. Puck drop is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET at XCel Energy Center. Below, we analyze the Golden Knights-Wild odds and lines, with NHL picks and predictions.

Vegas enters on a 6-game win streak, which includes three overtime victories and recent back-to-back wins at the San Jose Sharks. The Golden Knights shut out the Sharks 4-0 Saturday, one night after winning 5-4 in overtime. Vegas sits atop the West Division with a two-point lead over the second-place St. Louis Blues.

The Wild are coming off a two-game split at the Arizona Coyotes, prevailing 5-1 Friday and falling 5-2 Saturday. In the loss, Minnesota jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the opening period, but Arizona tied it in the second and scored 3 times in the third. The Wild are in fourth place in the West, six points behind the Knights.

Golden Knights at Wild: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:15 a.m. ET.

Golden Knights at Wild: Projected starting goalies

Vegas Fantasy Football Projections

Marc-Andre Fleury (12-3-0, 1.60 GAA, .942 SV%, 4 SO) vs. Cam Talbot (4-4-1, 2.88 GAA, .906 SV%)

Fleury has won his last five starts, including Saturday’s 24-save shutout of the Sharks. Two of the victories came against the Wild in back-to-back home games last week. “Flower” stopped 26 of 30 Minnesota shots in a 5-4 overtime win March 1, and allowed just 1 goal on 37 shots in a 5-1 decision two nights later.

Talbot was on the wrong end of both of those outings in Vegas, yielding 9 goals on 66 shots – 34 saves on 39 shots in the OT loss and 23 saves on 27 shots in the 5-1 defeat. He followed that with Saturday’s 5-2 loss at Arizona when he surrendered 4 goals on 30 shots. Talbot is 2-0 in three games at home this season, featuring a 2.14 GAA and a .923 SV%.

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Golden Knights at Wild: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Golden Knights 4, Wild 1

Money line (ML)

VEGAS (-125) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager as long as either RW Mark Stone or D Alex Pietrangelo play. Both suffered undisclosed injuries in Saturday’s win at San Jose and are listed as questionable.

Stone leads the Knights in points (27), assists (21) and plus/minus (+14).

So, keep an eye on the injury list. If both are out, Vegas is still the play but only for one unit.

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Against the spread (ATS)

Las Vegas Fantasy Football Odds

PASS due to the status of Stone and Pietrangelo in question. I’ll just focus on the money line and not get greedy looking for a multi-goal win by Vegas (-1.5, +220).

ATS records: Golden Knights 9-12 Wild 11-11

Over/Under (O/U)

The O/U is also a PASS because of the Vegas injuries.

Plus, while Under is usually a good bet when Fleury is in net – the Under is 8-2 in his last 10 outings – his two starts against the Wild last week finished Over.

O/U: Golden Knights 11-10 Wild 14-8

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Vegas Fantasy Football Player Odds

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